sunday, day 55

Sunday,  May 10th, 2020

The Latest COVID-19 Models

“Models predicting the potential spread of the COVID-19 pandemic have become a fixture of American life. Yet each model tells a different story about the devastation to come, making it hard to know which one is “right.” But COVID-19 models aren’t made to be unquestioned oracles. They’re not trying to tell us one precise future, but rather the range of possibilities given the facts on the ground.

One of their more sober tasks is predicting the number of Americans who will die due to COVID-19. FiveThirtyEight — with the help of the Reich Lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst — has assembled six models published by infectious disease researchers to illustrate possible trajectories of the pandemic’s death toll. In doing so, we hope to make them more accessible, as well as highlight how the assumptions underlying the models can lead to vastly different estimates. Here are the models’ U.S. fatality projections for the coming weeks.”

FDA approves first coronavirus antigen test for emergency use  The Food and Drug Administration issued the first emergency use authorization Friday for a coronavirus antigen test. The test, produced by San Diego-based manufacturer Quidel, can diagnose COVID-19 by detecting fragments of protein found on or within the virus present in samples collected from the naval cavity using swabs. The test produces results within minutes — much more quickly than many other tests on the market — but the technology is also more liable to result false negatives, so an PCR test may be necessary to confirm. But once production ramps up, so will the country’s ability to test millions of Americans per day.  Source: CNBC

U.S. tightens restrictions on visas for Chinese journalists  The Department of Homeland Security said Friday the United States will shorten the visa length for Chinese journalists working for non-American news outlets to 90 days. Previously, journalists with Chinese passports were granted open-ended visas. They can apply for extensions, but renewed visas will also last just 90 days. It’s the latest development in a media war between Washington and Beijing which has intensified during the coronavirus pandemic. American officials said the rules were meant to counterbalance the “suppression of independent journalism” in China, whose government expelled journalists from prominent U.S. publications in March. Before that, the U.S. reduced the number of Chinese citizens employed by five state-controlled Chinese news organizations allowed to work in the country. The 90-day limit won’t apply to reporters from Hong Kong, Macao, or to mainland Chinese citizens who hold green cards.  Source: The Washington Post

 

Some other interesting stories:

https://www.businessinsider.com/state-coronavirus-cases-show-too-soon-to-reopen-2020-5

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-09/ibiza-of-the-alps-under-scrutiny-as-emails-tell-new-virus-tale

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-09/in-week-two-of-the-big-reopen-half-empty-bar-feels-like-a-win?srnd=premium

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-08/virus-pushes-america-s-hospitals-to-the-brink-of-financial-ruin?srnd=premium

saturday, day 54

There have been four million confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide with 1.3 million recoveries and 275,000 deaths.

Globally there are about 90,000 new confirmed cases every day. This number peaked at 85,000/day in mid-April, dipped to 75,000/day two weeks ago and is on the rise again.

Globally new deaths are up to 5,500 a day having fallen to about 5,000 per day last week. This number peaked at about 7,000/day for two weeks in mid-April.

In the United States there have been over 1.3 million confirmed cases, over 200,000 recoveries and 78,000 deaths. New cases fluctuate at around 25-30,000/day and  new deaths have fluctuated at around 2,000/day for the last month.

In Massachusetts the situation looks somewhat promising. Massachusetts has one of the highest rates of confirmed cases of the virus in the United States if not the world. Only New York State, and New Jersey have more infected populations. Massachusetts has also done more testing per capita than anywhere besides New York State and Rhode Island.

I highly recommend the full daily Massachusetts COVID-19 Dashboard which runs to 30 pages of details and statistics. It is very good. It provides clues and answers that are not available in other regions and countries like, say, China.

The rate of new cases in Massachusetts is gradually declining.

The number of deaths has also peaked at about 200 per day in mid-to-late April. It appears to be down under 150 per day.

 

Testing capacity has increased steadily to over 10,000 tests per day on average. But more importantly the percent of positive tests has fallen from a peak of around 25-30% to a level under 15%. As the amount of testing goes up while the percentage of cases found goes down it is a clear indicator of the virus becoming less prevalent within the overall population.

Oil trades at $24 a barrel – up from a low of $12 two weeks ago but down from around $60 it traded at before the virus, the price-war, and the OPEC productions cuts.

The Dow Jones is at  24,300– down only 17% from its highs around 29,500 in mid-February

The S&P500 is at 2,930 – down only 13% from its highs around 3,386 in mid-February

CB

 

Saturday,  May 9th, 2020

11 critical, unanswered questions about the coronavirus and COVID-19

Important Updates on Brazil and Europe

“Brazil surpassed the U.K. in fatalities, and infections tripled in the past two weeks, as officials warned the numbers are likely higher given the low level of testing. Spain, Portugal and Germany reported upticks in new cases as lockdown measures eased. China, the ground zero for the pandemic, reported a new imported case and 15 asymptomatic cases.

U.S. unemployment reached the highest rate since just after the Great Depression as cases rose 2.3%. New York City will hire 10,000 people for an unprecedented effort to trace contacts by people infected with the virus.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said politicians must unite to fight the virus’s economic damage. The U.K. government dampened expectations the lockdown will be significantly rolled back as scientists warned the infection rate has crept higher in recent days.”

The U.S. unemployment rate hits 14.7%, the highest since the Great Depression, mainly due to job losses from the COVID-19 pandemic. (The Washington Post)

Microsoft announces a $1.5 billion investment in Italy, as part of its expansion of cloud computing services around the world. (Reuters)

Kuwait announces a total curfew lasting from May 10 to May 30, as part of new measures to prevent the spread of the virus. This comes after the Health Ministry confirmed 641 new COVID-19 cases, the highest daily increase to date. (Gulf News)

 

Some other interesting stories:

https://www.businessinsider.com/scott-galloway-jeff-bezos-revealed-fourth-great-unlock-2020-5

https://www.businessinsider.com/scott-galloway-college-students-become-corona-corps-fight-covid-19-2020-4

https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-a-photographers-quest-to-photograph-hundreds-of-parked-planes-2020-5

friday, day 53

“After years of wanting to thoroughly clean my house but lacking the time, this week I discovered that wasn’t the reason.”
Julius Caesar

Friday, May 8th, 2020

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-06/u-s-infections-rise-1-9-below-week-s-average-virus-update?srnd=premium

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-07/new-york-covid-19-deaths-top-20-000-with-climb-slower-than-fall?srnd=premium

The U.S. removes four Patriot missile batteries, two jet fighter squadrons and dozens of military personnel from Saudi Arabia while considering a reduction in the U.S. Navy presence in the Persian Gulf. (The Wall Street Journal)

Justice Department will drop case against Michael Flynn The Justice Department moved Thursday to drop the criminal case against former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn. Flynn pleaded guilty in 2017 to charges of lying to the FBI, but earlier this year, said he wanted to withdraw his plea because he was pressured into giving it. The DOJ sided with Flynn, deciding to drop his charges “after a considered review of all the facts and circumstances of this case, including newly discovered and disclosed information.” Flynn was fired shortly after it appeared he lied to Vice President Mike Pence and the FBI about the nature of his conversations with then-Russian Ambassador to the United States Sergey Kislyak. But recently unsealed documents revealed the FBI may have set out to get Flynn to lie. Source: The Associated Press

 

Oil $23
DJIA 23,800
SP500 2,880