First – the global summary. For the last five days, the virus has killed about 7,000 people each day globally. This number has plateaued. Three weeks ago when it was at about 4,000 per day and increasing by 500 a day I was sure it would hit 10,000 deaths/day within 10 days. That didn’t happen. I’m glad I was wrong.

Cumulatively, the virus has killed about 140,000 people. Only 3,000 of those in China, if you can believe the numbers.

2,100,000 people have been officially reported as testing positive. Ten days ago this number peaked by adding 90,000 cases a day. It has since gradually dropped to about 70,000/day. There is no way to tell if this trend will continue. Especially if countries with very large populations but so-far low reported numbers of cases like Mexico, Brazil, and India start to do or report more testing. There hasn’t been a healthcare crisis talked about in any of these countries, so one has to wonder why exactly that is the case. Because if everything we are being told is true there should be a lot of excess deaths in these countries. The little I’ve read about Mexico suggests the country is consciously ignoring the problem.

Mexico, with a population of 130 million or 30% that of the US, is currently reporting 6,000 cases and 450 deaths, while the US is reporting 600 times that many cases.

Mexico Is Frighteningly Unprepared for the Coronavirus
As the virus spreads, the government is still downplaying the danger.

 

The United States has 640,000 confirmed cases with 25,000 new cases every day. This number of new cases is gradually dropping every day and represents only 4% of existing cases. A week ago this number was 30,000 and 7%, so that is good. There have been 31,000 deaths in the US with 11,000 in New York City. Deaths may have peaked at about 2000/day in the last week. Hopefully.

Thursday, April 16th, 2020 – Day 31 of the half-measures stay-at-home/social-distancing/lockdown regime in Boston and a lot of the United States, although dates may vary by as much as a week or more in different states.

In most places in the western world as well as the United States, it appears from the reported numbers of new cases and new deaths from the virus that we may have passed a peak in the last week or, at least, reached a plateau in new infections so that the goal of “flattening the curve” has been achieved and hospitals and the healthcare system have not been overrun or even reached their maximum capacity.

However this has lead to some predicted outcomes and leaves us with a distinct lack of data necessary to make decisions about when and how to start to lift the lockdown order. The situation is somewhat of a Catch-22 bound tightly into a Gordian Knot. I know, I know, super-lame double metaphor. But I think more than a few of us feel like this right now.

I thought when a bomb went off a hundred yards away from me at the Marathon I had seen everything. Then when Donald Trump when was elected I thought I had really seen everything. Then this winter when Trump was still President I thought I had really, really seen everything. Now I have given up. What’s next? How wacky can things possibly get?

What we actually know about the virus from a medical/scientific standpoint is not much more than we knew 30 days ago which is almost nothing useful to start with. Adding to this problem is the fact that the most heavily tested regions have only managed to test a maximum of 2-3% of the population, with on average only 1% of the entire population of the United States having been tested in the last 30 days, suggesting it would take 3 years at this rate to test everybody.

Why random-testing has not been implemented in certain places to get a sample of overall population is unforgivable of our nations’ leaders. This type of “anti-body” testing has been done in the hardest hit region of Germany showing that as much as 15% of the population has been infected. If we draw inferences from this data for the United States, it means that with only half of one percent of our population testing positive, for every one of those people there are as many as 30 who have been infected yet shown no noteworthy symptoms.

Why universities, healthcare corporations, Homeland Security and other agencies with the man-power and organization of the National Guard have not been mobilized to tackle this necessity is mind-boggling.

It would be nice if the politicians would cease the ridiculous attacks and criticisms of past behaviors of rivals and concentrate on future solution-oriented action – today.

But even this anti-bodies testing doesn’t necessarily tell us how what percent of the population has already been infected at some point because it would not register those infections that were not strong enough to provoke an immune response. there are some who believe more than 50% of the population has come into contact with the virus and been infection and thereby the country has achieved what is called “herd-immunity.” On the other hand, there is no definite answer to whether infection by the virus translates to immunity from the virus for at least a year as there are reports from other countries like South Korea of hundreds who have been re-infected.

New York City has an infection rate of 13.7 per 1000 people. This is the highest of any region in the United States. The number of confirmed cases has a doubling rate of about 10 days. The has been very slowly, but steadily dropping. New York City has a population of 8.7 million people. It has so far suffered a death rate of 0.8 per 1000 people.

New York State has an infection rate of 11.0 per 1000 residents, followed by New Jersey (8.0), Louisiana (4.7), Massachusetts (4.3), Connecticut (4.1), The District of Columbia (3.1), Rhode Island (3.1), Michigan (2.8), Pennsylvania (2.1), and Delaware (2.1).

These states and Washington D.C. have a combined population of 69 million residents. This is approximately 20 percent of the United States. It has an average infection rate of 4.5 people out of 1000.

The rest of the states and Puerto Rico which  account for about 80% of the US population all currently have infection rates under 2.0 per 1000 for an average of 0.8 per thousand. Five times less than the top 20%.

The point here is that what is observed in the most heavily hit regions of the country after over a month of stay-at-home/social-distancing/lockdown is that only 1 out of 200 people has been confirmed infected.

Another problem is that it isn’t clear exactly why the numbers of new cases are not increasing as much as they were 2 weeks ago. It may in fact be because we have reached the limit of how many people we can test every day. We may get around 25-33% positive tests for people who have already passed a triage-symptom screening as we do in Massachusetts every day whether we test 5,000 or 50,000 people a day.

The agencies conducting these tests and tabulating the results don’t have much to say on this topic. This is not encouraging news. If the amount of new cases reported is actually a function of the amount of test we are able to process it means we have no real understanding of the current rate of reproduction of the virus.

We may in fact be completely blind as to whether 1% of the population has been infected and may be immune or 80%. Without ever seeing this topic even addressed in the mainstream media, one can hardly be optimistic that we have any inkling as to an answer. All decisions may be being made simply to avoid any deaths whatsoever. Trading tomorrow for today. Trading life as we know it any any hope of a better future for most people to avoid what has so far been an average couple of months of deaths.

Of course, no matter what, there will be those who say whether it is a month from now or 18 months from now that the measures we took saved a million lives. Or millions of lives. But neither side in the argument will be able to prove anything and nobody’s mind will be changed.

On average, with a population of 330 million, 660,000 infections -which is where we are currently at – translates to about 2 in 1000 people or 1 in 500. So the nation doesn’t see or observe people dropping left and right from a plague and the numbers even at 35,000 deaths so far still don’t translate to more than a bad flu season.

Necessarily there will be more and more of a cognitive dissonance between what people actually observe and the crisis they are being told is happening at the expense literally destroying the economy. Creating a 35% unemployment rate overnight and adding between 6 and 20 Trillion Dollars to the National Debt.

As time goes on pressure to both lift the lockdown to save the economy from falling into the apocalyptic and pressure to keep the lockdown in place until we have conducted the right tests and enough of them to have more data will mount.

This is all unknown territory. More and more awkward questions that won’t go away surface the longer the lockdown remains in effect. It is scary to think that at some point, if there is too much of a rift between what people observe and what they are being told is the case by the government, that factors other than government orders might come to dictate events.

Currently, the biggest political issue seems to be those who have always been hostile to Donald Trump attempting to show that the administration ignored the CDC and Dr. Fauci’s warnings for 6 weeks about locking down. But what happens if and when a sizable chunk of population starts to believe that the lockdown when it did happen wasn’t even necessary? What if the problem is largely the iatrogenic effects of the lockdown itself? Learned a new word today. “Iatrogenic” – relating to illness caused by medical examination or treatment.

I end with a quote by one of my favorite anonymous commenters on the internet:

While I would never go so far as to assert that this novel coronavirus is not a real virus, I am beginning to seriously think that the pandemic is not a real pandemic. Much of it is being manufactured out of statistical noise and the iatrogenic effects of the lockdown itself.

Why is there not a continued outbreak within China, not all of which was ever locked down? How did the virus manage to spread from Wuhan to the rest of the world but not to the rest of China? Why is Sweden doing just fine without any lockdowns? What ever happened to Iran? What about the teeming, disgusting, unsanitary cities of India and Africa, where people are too poor to buy food let alone to wear masks and social distance? What’s going on in the places that are totally off the radar screen like Turkey, Syria, Central America? How do three US aircraft carriers become floating petri dishes? Why does this virus seem to spread so easily just where it’s convenient to the propaganda machine, but merits a yawn everywhere else?

– Intelligent Dasein

 

Wednesday,  April 15th, 2020

The death toll from COVID-19 in the United States rises by 2,228 in a single day, the highest number of COVID-19 linked deaths reported in any country in a single day, as total cases rise to over 600,000. (Reuters)

Apple announces a new iPhone SE. (CNBC)

Retail sales plunge a record 8.7 percent in March The Commerce Department said Wednesday that retail sales in March dropped 8.7 percent. This is the biggest decline since the data started being tracked in 1992. In February, retail sales fell a revised 0.4 percent. Though a big decline was expected in a month in which businesses around the country were forced to close down to the coronavirus pandemic, the number was even worse than the 8.0 percent that economists were anticipating. Previously, the biggest monthly decline in retail sales was in the fall of 2008, when there was a drop of almost 4 percent. CNN’s Julia Chatterley warned that since most non-essential businesses didn’t start shutting down until halfway through the month, “as bad as this March number is, April is going to be worse.” Source: Reuters

Cinemark aims to start reopening movie theaters in July Cinemark CFO Sean Gamble in a call with investors on Wednesday said the theater chain, which like AMC and Regal closed its U.S. locations last month amid the coronavirus pandemic, has been “modeling an approximate four month ramp up, anticipating a July 1 reopen.” At the same time, Gamble noted that “we would not be in a scenario where we would be inclined to bring back everything day one.” Instead, he said, reopening movie theaters would be “more a dip-our-toe type of approach.” Theaters could, for example, sell half as many seats to ensure customers would be spaced out. Capacity may be reduced to 50 percent, and openings may need to happen on a “state by state, county by county” basis, Gamble said. Source:  Bloomberg

 

Tuesday,  April 14th, 2020

Airbnb secures a US$1 billion loan to stay afloat as the pandemic causes worldwide demand for its services to drop. This follows a separate bond deal, also worth US$1 billion, it negotiated last week for similar reasons. (Reuters)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi extends India’s nationwide lockdown until May 3. (Al Jazeera)

U.S. President Donald Trump announces the United States is suspending funding of the World Health Organization (WHO) pending an investigation. (CNN)

 

Monday,  April 13th, 2020

The Walt Disney Company reports it is entering a US$5 billion unsecured credit agreement, possibly to make up for shortfalls in its theme park division. Citibank, N.A. is the main broker of the deal. (Reuters)

The Department of Health and Social Care reports 4,342 new confirmed cases and 717 more deaths from COVID-19, bringing the UK’s death toll to 11,329 and 88,621 total cases. (Reuters)

The United States Navy confirms the first death of a sailor serving aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt. Over 500 sailors on the ship have tested positive for the virus. (BBC)

 

Sunday, Apr 12th, 2020

OPEC and allies strike a deal to cut oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day, the largest such cut agreed upon, starting May 1. (BBC)

The death toll from coronavirus in Italy has reached 19,889 people. Italy has the second highest number of deaths in the world, after the United States. (Corriere della Sera)

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is released from hospital after days in intensive care. (Orlando Sentinel)

The End 

Monday, April 13th, 2020

New York City has an infection rate of 12.1 per 1000 people. This is the highest of any region in the United States. The number of confirmed cases has a doubling rate of about 10 days. The has been very slowly, but steadily dropping. New York City has a population of 8.7 million people. It has so far suffered a death rate of 0.8 per 1000 people.

New York State has a rate of 9.7 per 1000 residents, followed by New Jersey (7.0), Louisiana (4.4), Massachusetts (3.7), Connecticut (3.4), Rhode Island (2.5) and Michigan (2.4)

The days with the highest death tolls so far and the highest numbers of new cases have occurred in the last week in New York City, which is the hardest hit region, of the country have occurred in the last week. The doubling rate has decreased from about four days to 10.

There are several indications including new hospital admissions that virus’ exponential spread has plateaued and will soon begin to decline. Although New York City has experienced 6 staright days with over 700 deaths, it may have peaked at about 800 deaths per day.

 

Sunday, Apr 12th, 2020

OPEC and Russia announce they have struck a deal to cut oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day, the largest such cut agreed upon, starting May 1. (BBC)

Johns Hopkins University records 2,108 more deaths [this past Friday] from COVID-19 in the United States, the highest daily death toll in the country to date, bringing the U.S. death toll to 18,693 and 500,399 confirmed cases. The U.S. becomes the first country to report over 2,000 COVID-19 deaths in a single day. (BBC)

In a major setback for efforts to declare the end of the outbreak on Sunday, the Democratic Republic of the Congo reports the first case of Ebola since February. The outbreak has killed more than 2,200 people since August 2018. (Reuters)

World celebrates Easter during pandemic People around the world are celebrating Easter Sunday in a variety of ways while many are under stay-at-home orders amid the novel COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. Pope Francis celebrated Mass inside a mostly empty St. Peter’s Basilica in Vatican City while people watched from home on their televisions. Normally, tens of thousands would gather in St. Peter’s square to hear him deliver his “Urbi et Orbi” speech. Christians in the United States have mostly been preparing to celebrate virtually, as well, though some pastors are reportedly planning to hold in-person services in defiance of state restrictions, citing religious freedoms. Other churches plan to hold drive-in services. Source: The Associated Press

IRS begins depositing stimulus checks The Internal Revenue Service on Saturday announced it sent out the first wave of stimulus checks to Americans amid the novel COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. Deposits will continue throughout the week, beginning with people who filed tax returns in 2018 and 2019 and authorized direct deposit. The IRS is encouraging those who haven’t filed to do so, so they can get their money sooner. Under the congressional relief package, individuals with adjusted gross incomes under $75,000 will receive $1,200, and couples will get $2,400 plus $500 per child. After the $75,000 threshold, the amount received will be reduced by $5 for every additional $100 in gross income, eventually halting at $99,000. The limits are doubled for couples. Source: CNN

 

Saturday,  Apr 11th, 2020

Paul McCartney’s handwritten copy of The Beatles’ “Hey Jude” is sold in a virtual auction for US$910,000, almost six times its estimated value. (CNN)

Brazil becomes the first country in the Southern Hemisphere to surpass 1,000 deaths from COVID-19, as the death toll rises to 1,068 and 19,789 total cases, according to Johns Hopkins University. (BBC)

 

 

Friday,  Apr 10th, 2020

EU finance ministers agree on a €540 billion loan package to alleviate the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. (The New York Times)

 

 

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-united-states-each-day-2020-n1177936

This article is a good summary of anything that has been learned about the virus. There are still a lot of questions.

Prognosis
Coronavirus Testing in China Finds More Symptom-Free Cases

 

Some headlines for the last couple days:

Friday,  Apr 3rd, 2020

Shenzhen bans eating cats and dogs in reaction to the outbreak. (Reuters)

American rapper 6ix9ine is released early from prison due to coronavirus concerns. (Complex)

Ford Motor Company extends the suspension of vehicle and engine production at most of its manufacturing sites in Europe to May 4 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Reuters)

Unemployment climbs to 4.4 percent as economy loses 700,000 jobs  The U.S. economy lost 701,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate rose from 3.5 percent to 4.4 percent amid the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. This ended a record 113 straight months of gains, as this is the first decline in payrolls since September 2010. Economists have warned the worst is yet to come in the next report, as this data is based on a survey conducted during the week ending on March 14, before many businesses had to close due to pandemic. According to CNBC, “some two-thirds of the drop came in the hospitality industry, particularly bars and restaurants forced to close during the economic shutdown.” The Labor Department reported Thursday that 6.6 million initial unemployment claims were filed last week, the highest weekly number ever recorded. Source: NBC News

Dr. Birx says it’s clear not all Americans following social distancing guidelines Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, emphasized on Thursday how important it is for all Americans to practice social distancing, saying this is the best way to slow down the spread of coronavirus. It’s not enough to use masks, Birx said during a press conference, and even small gatherings of just a few people need to be avoided. The number of confirmed coronavirus cases continues to rise, and Birx said it is imperative that “we change that slope. We have to change the logarithmic curve that we’re on. We see country after country having done that, what it means in the United States is not everyone is doing it.” Source: The New York Times

CDC reportedly set to recommend everyone wear face masks outside  New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio issued a recommendation Thursday to wear face coverings when going outside, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is reportedly set to do the same. The public should use homemade cloth face coverings when outside and reserve medical-grade masks for health-care workers, a draft CDC document obtained by Stat News reveals. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti told his city to wear masks on Wednesday. The White House’s top coronavirus doctor, Anthony Fauci, said Tuesday that the CDC would consider issuing a mask recommendation once they were more widely available, and that the coronavirus task force would be discussing the proposal that day. Source:  CNBC

 

Thursday, Apr 2nd, 2020

The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 reaches more than one million worldwide. (Sky News)

United States President Donald Trump invokes the Defense Production Act to clear up supply-chain issues encountered in the manufacturing of ventilator machines. (CNN)

Taiwan donates 10 million masks to countries hardest hit by COVID-19. (ABC News)

Spain records its deadliest day with 950 deaths, exceeding 10,000, as employment falls by 834,000 jobs in 15 days. (El Periódico) (La Vanguardia)

France reports 1,355 more deaths from COVID-19, the highest daily death toll in the country to date, bringing the country’s death toll to 5,387, the new figures include deaths in retirement homes for the first time. (Reuters)

The Department of Health and Social Care reports 4,244 new cases and 569 more deaths from COVID-19, the highest daily death toll in the country to date, bringing the United Kingdom’s death toll to 2,921 and 33,718 confirmed cases. (The Guardian’)

The Mayor of Guayaquil, Cynthia Viteri, herself infected with COVID-19, condemns the federal government’s response to the pandemic as the virus rapidly spreads inside the city. A joint military and police task force has collected at least 150 bodies off the streets. The government’s spokesman Jorge Wated apologizes in a message broadcast on state television. (France 24) (CBS News)