Day Fourteen of a half-measures lockdown in the Boston area. 39,000 tests have been administered by the state of Massachusetts. We are up to 4955 confirmed cases. 

The state appears to have the capacity to test about 6000 people per day. People are screened before being tested and it is unclear what percentage of people who are screened every day are actually tested that day. But we do know that about 11-12% of those tested test positive for COVID-19.

Of the 4955 people who have tested positive in Massachusetts, only about 400 have required hospitalization. This is very good news.

The numbers and shape of the “curve” of new cases after approximately 2000 cases have been discovered look very much like those of most Western European countries with similarly sized populations.

With a population of 6.9 million, Massachusetts has about 7 confirmed cases of COVID-19 for every 10,000 residents or 0.7 cases per thousand residents.

This is actually a relatively high rate in comparison to other all other states but not alarming. Massachusetts ranks 4th behind New York State with 2.7 cases per 1000 residents, New Jersey (1.3) and Louisiana (0.8).

New York City with 35,000 cases and a population of 8.7 million tops the entire United States with about 4.0 cases per one thousand residents, 6 times higher than Massachusetts.

At this point all of these numbers of cases are doubling approximately every 3 to 5 days, so it is safe to say that a week from now these numbers should all be four times higher. This does not show any cases where people are asymptomatic and have not been tested, but a higher percent of cases each day should be visible and confirmed after 3 weeks of social distancing and increased testing.

Globally the virus is now killing 4000 people a day. Yesterday it was killing 3500 a day and with great predictability tomorrow it will kill at least 4500. The total is now 35,000 dead. Before this number starts to slow down and very shortly, maybe within a week, the virus will be killing 10,000 people per day globally. This is not fear-mongering or speculation. This is going to happen.

Globally 780,000 people have been infected and, minus the dead, 135,000 have recovered. There were 80,000 new cases today – as many cases as there will all together in China over 3-plus months. And that number grows by at least 10,000 every day. The disease is slowly winding down in China as it starts to really move in the West.

The Stock Market is up in the morning about 2% in the last month. The Dow Jones is at 22,000, only about 15% lower than the start of the year and 25% lower than its high of 29,500 in mid-February.

Oil is an astounding $20 for West Texas Intermediate and $22 for Brent. Gold is steady at $1640.

– CB

A couple of the headlines today:

Monday,  Mar 30th, 2020 

Trump extends social distancing guidelines to April 30  As the COVID-19 coronavirus continues to spread across the United States, President Trump on Sunday said he is extending the federal government’s social distancing guidelines to April 30. “During this period, it’s very important that everyone follow the guidelines,” Trump said. “The better you do, the faster this whole nightmare will end.” Previously, Trump said he wanted to see the United States “opened up” by Easter on April 12. As of Sunday evening, there were 139,523 confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States, with the death toll at 2,433. Trump said modeling shows that the peak number of deaths will likely hit in two weeks, and he expects “that by June 1st, we will be well on our way to recovery … a lot of great things will be happening.” Source: CNN

Fauci says there could ultimately be 200,000 coronavirus deaths in the U.S. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Sunday that he thinks the novel coronavirus pandemic could potentially result in anywhere between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths, although he told CNN’s Jake Tapper that he doesn’t want to be held to any prediction. Fauci said he’s never seen a pandemic reach the worst-case scenario presented by its models, and he believes that remains unlikely for the coronavirus, as well. But by no means did he downplay the severity of the situation. Meanwhile, President Trump took to Twitter on Sunday to highlight the successful television ratings his daily White House briefings have been receiving since he revived them amid the pandemic, arguing he was driving the media “crazy” with the high numbers. Source: The Week, President Donald Trump

 

This Week In Virology

This is an outstanding source for information. All the hosts and people interviewed are both experts in their fields and on the front lines dealing with the virus. You will feel like you’ve gone to medical school after listening to one of these podcasts. The lastest – TWiV 595: Coronavirus update – Daniel Griffin MD in the parking lot

 

Another excellent listen – TWiV Special: Conversation with a COVID-19 patient, Ian Lipkin
March 28, 2020